Tropical Cyclone 23W (Nesat) / Invest 91W
Saturday, October 15, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Nesat)…is located approximately 291 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHC

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Nesat)

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds were 45 knots with gusts to near 55 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a low level circulation center (llcc) which is partially exposed on its eastern extent and multiple centers of rotation, or spinners, rotating around the central llcc.

The overall environment is favorable for development with shear assessed at 10-15 knots from the east, warm sea surface temperatures and moderate westward outflow, but mid-level dry air is wrapping in from the south and east, inhibiting convective consolidation in those sectors and slowing development.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 91W which is located approximately 879 NM east-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan

The system is currently classified as a subtropical depression, generally characterized as having both tropical and midlatitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and microwave data depict a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with expansive convective banding displaced on the western periphery.

This trough is expected fill and dissipate over the next couple of days and be replaced by an upper-level anticyclone. 91W is expected to become stagnant or drift southward for the next 36-48 hours and move into a more favorable environment, possibly transitioning to a tropical cyclone.

Global models are in agreement that the system will lose jet support, take on more tropical characteristics and intensify while tracking slightly southwest before tracking east-northeast beyond 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.