Tropical Cyclone 23W (Nesat) / Tropical Cyclone 24W (Haitang) / Invest 92W / Invest 92B
Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Nesat)…is located approximately 219 NM east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Haitang)…is located approximately 632 NM northeast of Minami Tori Shima, Japan – Final Warning

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:

Invest 90E

A trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. This system has become a little better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development.

A tropical depression is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 23W (Nesat)

According to the JTWC Warning number 17, sustained winds were 65 knots with gusts to near 80 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a rapidly decaying system with diminished core convection due to strong southerly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment. A color composite microwave image reveals a fully-exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center with deep convection
confined to the northwest quadrant

TS 23W is rapidly decaying and is expected to continue its sharp decline as the dry, cool air over the northern semicircle entrains into the system.

Due to the weak steering influence, TS 23W will track slowly westward through 24 hours. After 24 hours, a broad upper-level trough is forecast to dig over southern china which should allow the system to turn west-northwestward and slow while dissipating.

After 48 hours, the track motion is more uncertain with quasi-stationary motion likely either over Vietnam or off the coast of Vietnam. TS 23W will dissipate by 72 hours or perhaps earlier as environmental conditions quickly
degrade.

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Haitang) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) on the northwestern edge of a curved convective band. A microwave image shows fragmented banding over the southeast quadrant with a weakly-defined llcc.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with low vertical wind shear and eastward outflow offset by dry air entrainment and borderline sea surface temperature values.

TS 24W is forecast to recurve northeastward to east-northeastward through the forecast period along the northwestern to northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

The system will begin extra-tropical transition (ett) near 12 hours as it begins to interact with the mid-latitude westerlies. TS 24W will complete ett between  24 and 36 hours as it merges with a strong frontal zone and tracks over cooler sea surface temperatures.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92W which is located approximately 625 NM east of Aparri, Philippines

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows flaring deep convection in the southwest quadrant with a broad disorganized low level circulation center with multiple mesovortices rotating cyclonically about a centroid.

Environmental analysis reveals the system is in a marginally favorable environment for development defined by strong equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that the system will track westward over the next 48 hours with gradual development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92B which is located approximately 21 NM east of Port Blair, Andaman Islands

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an area of persistent convection in the eastern region of the Andaman Sea with fragmented rain bands wrapping into an elongated low level circulation.

Upper-level analysis indicates invest 92B is in a favorable environment for development with low (5-10 knots) vertical wind shear offset by moderate divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 92B will continue to track generally northwestward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.