Tropical Cyclone 19E (Roslyn) / Tropical Cyclone 25W / Invest 92B
Saturday, October 22, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 19E (Roslyn)…is located approximately 65 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 25W…is located approximately 657 NM east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam – Final Warning

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 19E (Roslyn)

NHC Advisory number 13

ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

Roslyn is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster motion toward the north-northeast is expected on Sunday.

On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some weakening is possible tonight and early Sunday, Roslyn is expected to be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 25W – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 13, sustained winds were 25 knots with gusts to near 35 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (mis) depicts a ragged, decaying low-level circulation devoid of any significant deep convection. MSI also shows stratocumulus bands wrapping into a weakly-defined center with a stratocumulus field west and southwest of the system.

Upper-level conditions are marginally favorable with low vertical wind shear and weak outflow, however, the low-level environment is marginal with stable conditions so overall conditions are assessed as marginal.

TD 25W is forecast to track westward through 12 hours but is expected to turn southwestward as it tracks within the general low-level northeasterly surge flow.

TD 25W is struggling but is expected to maintain TD strength through 24 hours with a steady weakening trend and eventual dissipation after 24 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92B which is located approximately 475 NM south of Chittagong, Bangladesh

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating system with flaring but persistent areas of convection in the southeastern region of the Andaman Sea.

Environmental analysis indicates invest 92B is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, moderate equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 92B will continue to track generally northwestward and then northward as it continues to consolidate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.