Invest 93W
Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There are no active Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHC

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 93W which is located approximately 938 NM south-southeast of Kadena AFB, Japan

Animated multi-spectral imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation with flaring, disorganized convective banding extending in a southwest to northeast orientation in the southern half of the system.

93W still has some work to do to get down to a more consolidated and vertically stacked system, but environmental conditions are highly favorable with good radial outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and probabilistic models are in alignment that the eastern periphery of the larger circulation will consolidate more into a well-defined circulation center, and rapidly deepen and intensify as it wanders towards the northwest over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 27 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.