By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 26W (Nalgae)…is located approximately 524 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHC
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 26W (Nalgae)
According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds were 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad, partially exposed low-level circulation with a poorly defined center with multiple mesovortices rotating about a centroid and limited convective banding over the southern semicircle.
TS 26W is struggling to consolidate due to a marginally favorable environment, however, the upper trough is forecast to weaken with expanding poleward outflow into the westerlies to the north developing within the next 24 hours.
This in turn should allow the system to consolidate and intensify at a faster rate to a peak of 75 knots by 48 hours near landfall over eastern Luzon, Philippines. TS Nalgae will weaken significantly over the Philippines but is expected to re-intensify as it recurves poleward and tracks away from Luzon after 96 hours.
A dynamic 500mb shortwave trough is forecast to propagate over eastern china after 84 hours, which should break the ridge down and allow the system to track slowly poleward.