By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Super Typhoon 02W (Mawar)…is located approximately 89 NM west-northwest of Andersen AFB, Guam
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Western Pacific Ocean
Super Typhoon 02W (Mawar)
According to the JTWC Warning number 21, sustained winds were 135 knots, with gusts to 165 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts deep convection, with the coldest cloud tops on the southern and eastern peripheries, surrounding a cloud-filled circulation center.
Reported wind speed gusts at Guam peaked at 91 knots at 241000z, after which reports from the sensor are unavailable. TY Mawar has completed the shift to a west-northwestward track observed around the time of the previous warning, and the center has passed its closest point of approach to the island of Guam. however, potentially severe impacts to Guam are still possible for the next several hours as the noted deep convection located to the south and east of the storm center continues to move across the island.
Subtropical ridging is now firmly entrenched to the north of Typhoon Mawar, and the associated flow will push the system along a west-northwestward track throughout the five-day forecast period. By 120 hours, the system will approach the steering ridge axis and begin a poleward turn ahead of a developing mid-latitude trough.
Moderate intensification is expected over the next two to three days, supported by low vertical wind shear, favorable upper-level outflow, and passage over warm water. In the extended period, restricted moist inflow and passage over somewhat cooler water are expected to moderate the intensity.