Tropical Cyclone 02W (Mawar)
Saturday, May 27, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Typhoon 02W (Mawar)…is located approximately 554 NM south of Kadena AB, Okinawa


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.


Western Pacific Ocean

Typhoon 02W (Mawar)

According to the JTWC Warning number 33, sustained winds were 110 knots, with gusts to 135 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicates a mature and highly symmetric system of tightly wrapping deep convective bands feeding into a large (25 NM) eye. A microwave image reveals a recently completed eye wall with numerous fragmented deep convective bands wrapping into the system from all quadrants.

STY 02W (Mawar) is forecast to continue tracking west-northwestward under the steering influence of the ridge to the northeast. Over the coming hours, 02W is forecast to be dethroned as a super-typhoon as the system continues on its weakening trend. By 24 hours as 02W moves into an even less
favorable environment, characterized by cooling sea surface temperatures and dry air entrainment from the west, intensities will fall to 110 knots.

By 48 hours, as 02W approaches the Luzon Strait, it will enter a complex and competing steering environment entrenched between a ridge to the northwest over southeast China and the other ridge to the northeast. After 48 hours, weak outflow, cooler sea surface temperatures and dry-air entrainment from China, will conspire to further weaken the system as 02W transitions to a generally northward heading. As the system eventually steadies up on a north-northeastward track in an increasingly harsh environment, intensities will fall to around 60 knots by 120 hours and continue to fall thereafter.