By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Storm 02W (Mawar)…is located approximately 172 NM southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Western Pacific Ocean
Tropical Storm 02W (Mawar)
According to the JTWC Warning number 49, sustained winds were 55 knots, with gusts to 70 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and animated radar imagery depict a compact, consolidated core with a 10 NM eye, with the eye and spiral banding confined primarily to the southern semicircle.
Despite marginal sea surface temperature values, the core convective structure has improved slightly with a weak eye evident in satellite imagery due to moderate radial outflow.
TS 02W is embedded within a competing steering pattern with zonal flow prevailing to the north over the Korean Peninsula and Japan. A sounding from Minamidaito-jima (25.8nN 131.2E) reveals southerly flow, which will steer the system northward to north-northeastward through 24 hours.
TS 02W is expected to weaken gradually as sea surface temperature values decrease, however, the system will remain a 600 NM diameter storm-force low as it tracks over the Okinawa region in the next 36 hours.
After 36 hours, TS 02W will accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward while weakening within the subtropical westerlies along the northwestern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge.
After 72 hours, TS 02W will rapidly accelerate while undergoing extra-tropical transition as it interacts with the jet stream zone south and east of Honshu. TY 02W will complete extra-tropical transition by 96 hours as it gains frontal characteristics.