Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Storm 02W (Mawar)…is located approximately 101 NM east-northeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Central north Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through June 13th.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical Storm 02W (Mawar)

According to the JTWC Warning number 53, sustained winds were 45 knots, with gusts to 55 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a tightly-wrapped circulation. Convergent flow associated with an upper-level shortwave trough is suppressing convection on the western side of the circulation, while convergent low-level inflow and divergent upper-level outflow continue to support convective development to the east and south of the system center.

TS 02W is turning eastward around the northwestern periphery of the steering ridge and will continue on a generally northeastward trajectory throughout the forecast period. The system will remain south of the fairly zonal mid-latitude westerly flow pattern over the next day and a half before finally merging with a developing mid-latitude trough and transitioning to an extratropical low between 36 and 72 hours.

The system is expected to weaken only slightly throughout the forecast period due to supportive eastward and poleward upper-level flow in the near-term, with the approaching mid-latitude trough later in the forecast period.