Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Storm 02W (Mawar)…is located approximately 287 NM south-southwest of Yokosuka, Japan – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

North Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical Storm 02W (Mawar) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 57, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has become grossly sheared/elongated as it tracked under the strong prevailing westerlies.

TS Mawar is expected to continue to deteriorate as it tracks further. It has begun extra-tropical transition and by 12 hours will transform into a gale-force cold core low, with an expanding wind field.

There is a distinct possibility that TS 02W will dissipate and/or be absorbed before 12 hours.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 36 NM northwest of Yap

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a weak broad low-level circulation (llc) associated with weak disorganized convection surrounding the llc…with a weak circulation just northwest of Yap.

98W is in a favorable environment for development, characterized by moderate outflow aloft and low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are also conducive.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in fair agreement that invest 98W will be slow to develop as it tracks generally poleward over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.