Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03W…is located approximately 304 NM northwest of Yap

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

North Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03W

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a large (500+ NM across), slowly consolidating system with a broad, elongated low level circulation and expansive, fragmented, formative bands spiraling in from all quadrants.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, moderate equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.

TD 03W is expected to continue on its current track, then after 12 hours, turn northwestward under the steering influence of the ridge. After 72 hours, it will veer more northward as it begins to round the ridge axis. The favorable conditions will fuel a gradual intensification, reaching 85 knots by 120 hours.

Arabian Sea

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92A, which is located approximately 723 NM east of Socotra, Republic of Yemen

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery
depicts a rapidly consolidating low-level circulation with formative deep convective banding wrapping into a well-defined center.

Environmental analysis indicates a favorable environment with strong divergence aloft and low vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperature values are very warm and support further intensification.

Global models indicate rapid consolidation with a slow poleward track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.