Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)…is located approximately 576 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)…is located approximately 566 NM southeast of Masirah Island

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

North Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)

According to the JTWC Warning number 13, sustained winds are 80 knots…with gusts to near 100 knots

As indicated in animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery, Typhoon 03W has consolidated over the past six hours and formed an oblong ragged eye. A microwave image depicts a complete eyewall surrounding a well-defined but oblong microwave eye feature.

Environmental conditions remain favorable with radial outflow and low vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures remain conducive.

TY 03W is forecast to recurve poleward around the western periphery of the ridge over the next 48 hours with a peak intensity of 100 knots at 24 hours. After 48 hours, the system will track along the northwest periphery of the ridge within the subtropical westerlies, which will eventually lead to subtropical transition (stt) by 96 hours.

The frontal zone is expected to remain well to the north, therefore, extra-tropical transition is unlikely south of Honshu Island, Japan. As TY 03W tracks more poleward, it will interact with the subtropical jet and complete stt by 120 hours.

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)

According to the JTWC Warning number 12, sustained winds are 65 knots…with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation (llc) with a central dense overcast feature obscuring the western half of the llc.

Tropical cyclone 02A is meandering slowly poleward under the weak steering influence of the ridge to the east and will continue to track slowly poleward through 72 hours, then north-northwestward through 120 hours. As vertical wind shear relaxes, the system is expected to intensify to 100 knots by 36 hours.

After 36 hours, persistent upper-level easterlies and moderate to high vertical wind shear will prevail and weaken the system steadily.

Western Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W…which is located approximately 156 NM east-northeast of Hanoi, VN

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an assessed low level
circulation (llc) obscured by broad convection with15-20 knot winds.

The environment is marginally favorable for development with weak poleward outflow, moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that invest 99W will track southward or southeastward over the Gulf of Tonkin and slowly intensify over the next
48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to low.

North Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93B…which is located approximately 224 NM southeast of Kolkata, India

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a consolidated area obscured by flaring convection that is being sheared to the southwest. 

Upper-level analysis indicates 93B is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that 93B will continue to track generally northeastward, and though overall conditions are favorable, land interaction will serve to limit the potential development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.