Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)…is located approximately 465 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB

Tropical Cyclone 03B…is located approximately 84 NM south of Chittagong – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)…is located approximately 487 NM south of Karachi, Pakistan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

North Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Guchol)

According to the JTWC Warning number 17, sustained winds are 90 knots…with gusts to near 110 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a ragged, cloud-filled eye with intense convective banding over the eastern semi-circle and weaker banding over the western semicircle. A microwave image reflects a general weakening trend with an eroding eyewall over the western quadrant and the bulk of the deep convective banding over the eastern and southern semi-circles.

Upper-level analysis reveals a favorable environment with radial outflow and a robust eastward outflow channel into a strong upper low positioned over the northern Marianas. Sea surface temperature values remain favorable, however, ocean heat content values are low reflecting a shallow warm layer.

TY 03W is forecast to recurve poleward around the western periphery of the ridge over the next 12 to 24 hours with gradual weakening expected after 12 hours. After 36 hours, the system will accelerate along the northwest periphery of the ridge within the subtropical westerlies, which will eventually lead to subtropical transition by 72 hours.

The frontal zone is expected to remain well to the north, therefore, extra-tropical transition is unlikely south of Honshu. After 72 hours, environmental conditions will degrade further with increasing vertical wind shear (20-50 knots) and cooling, marginal sea surface temperatures. As TY 03W tracks more poleward, it will interact with the subtropical jet and complete stt by 96 hours.

North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 03B – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation (llc) with deep convection flaring over the western semicircle. A color composite microwave image reveals a linear band of deep convection shearing westward with a weakly defined llc near the eastern edge of the band.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginally unfavorable environment with high (25-30 knot) easterly vertical wind shear and broad diffluence aloft.

TC 03B is forecast to track northeastward to north-northeastward along the northwestern flank of the steering flow through the forecast period.

Due to the marginally unfavorable environmental conditions, the system is not expected to intensify but should steadily weaken as it approaches the Myanmar coast with dissipation occurring within the next 24 hours.

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)

According to the JTWC Warning number 16, sustained winds are 70 knots…with gusts to near 85 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts an irregular central dense overcast feature obscuring much of the low-level circulation. MSI also reveals some exposed low-level bands over the eastern semi-circle due to persistent easterly vertical wind shear, which is hindering development.

Tropical cyclone 02A is struggling to consolidate due to the persistent moderate to high easterly vertical wind shear. Moderate westward outflow and very warm sea surface temperatures have helped maintain the core convection.

This vertical wind shear is expected to relax within the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow TC 02A to re-intensify to about 90 knots by 36 hours as it tracks slowly poleward along the western periphery of the ridge.

After 36 hours, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase with upper-level easterlies strengthening south of a building ridge to the north. This is expected to produce a steady weakening trend through 120 hours as the system continues to slowly track north-northwestward into the northern Arabian Sea.

Western Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W…which is located approximately 150 NM northwest of Haikou, Hainan Island

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery, animated radar imagery depict a defined low level circulation obscured by flaring convection.

The environment is marginally favorable for development with robust equatorward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Interaction with land will hinder development, however global models are in agreement that invest 99W will track southward or southeastward over the Gulf of Tonkin and slowly intensify over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.