Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, June 14, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)…is located approximately 132 NM south of Karachi, Pakistan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Central East Pacific:

A broad area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By this weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Eastern East Pacific:

An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Biparjoy)

According to the JTWC Warning number 36, sustained winds are 60 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a mass of convection being displaced to the southwest of a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc). A partial image reveals an opened microwave eye feature with the deepest convection in the southern semi-circle of the llcc.

TC Biparjoy is in an un-endearing environment for further tropical activity. These conditions are characterized by moderate westward outflow aloft, very warm sea surface temperatures, offset by unfavorable (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear. Moreover, as a result of the previous quasi-stationary behavior, there is upwelling to the southeast of the llcc which is cooling the surface air near the core.

TC 02A (Biparjoy) continues to battle its environment as it rides the western edge of the str to the east. By 12 hours, the system will decrease in intensity to 60 knots as a result of more dry air entrainment from the northeast, and the continued effects of the previously stated upwelling.

By 24 hours, TC 02A will continue to decrease in intensity to 55 knots due to land interaction before making landfall near the India-Pakistan border. Through 36 and 48 hours, TC 02A will dissipate inland over northern India.