Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay) / Tropical Cyclone 14W / Invest 92W
Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay)…is located 260 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California 

Tropical Cyclone 14W…is located approximately 696 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan

Northeast Pacific: .

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay)

KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING

Kay is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Kay could become a major hurricane during that time.

Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning Wednesday morning and are forecast to spread northward Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches across the central portions of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maxima of 8 inches possible across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches possible across northwestern portions of mainland Mexico. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Central Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 14W

According to the JTWC Warning number 3, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a compact but rapidly deepening system with the central dense overcast obscuring the low level circulation center.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate radial outflow, and low vertical wind shear.

TD 14W will slowly track southwestward underthe steering influence of the ridge extension, the motion slowed due to binary interaction with a developing cyclone (invest 92W) 300 NM to the east.

The ridge extension is expected to recede, allowing TD 14W to track northwestward after 24 hours as the main ridge to the northwest takes full control of steering.

The favorable environment will promote a steady intensification to 60 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, increasing equatorward outflow will allow for rapid intensification to 100 knots by 120 hours, possibly higher.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92W which is located approximately 217 NM south-southeast of Iwo-To, Japan

According to the JTWC…enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts persistent flaring convection partially obscuring a low level circulation

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development defined by moderate outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are beginning to handle the system better and are in general agreement that 92W will have a north-northeastward track over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.