By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
There are no Tropical Cyclones
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHC
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
North Indian Ocean
According to the JTWC, there’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99B, which is located approximately 362 NM southeast of Kolkata, India.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a disorganized but deepening and expanding system with fragmented banding from the south feeding into an obscured low level circulation over southern Myanmar.
Environmental analysis indicates a supportive environment for Invest 99B to intensify in as it tracks into the Bay of Bengal, including warm waters, strong low-level vorticity, and good equatorward outflow.
Wind shear, while currently unfavorably high, is forecast to lower to more favorable levels (10-15 knots) as the axis of strong tropical easterly jet winds aloft moves south.
Deterministic models are in general agreement with tight member groupings taking 99B northwestward into the Bay of Bengal (bob) and quickly crossing the northern bob before making landfall along the India/Bangladesh coastline by 60 hours.
High levels of vertical wind shear are expected to weaken and models suggest invest 99b will rapidly consolidate and intensify to at least strong tropical depression or weak tropical storm strength in the next 36 to 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 29 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.