Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Herman)…is located approximately 499 NM west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia – Final Warning

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 17S (Herman) – Final Warning

According to JTWC Warning number 17, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts organized banding with very little convection wrapping into a low level circulation center.

The system albeit small, Herman is undergoing dissipation at an impressive, expedited rate similar to how it rapidly intensified on march 30th. TC Herman is in an unfavorable environment for further tropical development.

These conditions are characterized by weak outflow aloft, strong (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures.

TC Herman is riding the western periphery of the subtropical ridge to the east-northeast. As it continues this trajectory, TC Herman will fill rapidly as all of its mid-to-upper level support will continue to dwindle due to the harsh
environment.

An approaching major longwave trough from the west will absorb the remnants of TC 17S over the course of the next couple of days. The deterministic and ensemble models all agree that TC Herman will continue to fill as it transits to the northwest before it completely dissipates after 24 hours.