Tropical Cyclone 04B / Invest 93W / Invest 97W
Saturday, August 20, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 04B is located 71 NM west-southwest of Kolkata, India – Final Warning


Northeast Pacific:

Western East Pacific:

An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Ivette is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves generally westward, well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Central Pacific:

Western East Pacific:

An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Ivette is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves generally westward, well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

Northwest Pacific Ocean

According to the JTWC, there’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W, which is located approximately 535 NM south of Kadena AB, Japan.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low level circulation center with scattered pockets of convective banding primarily on the southern side of 93W.

Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for development defined by weak radial outflow aloft, moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature values.

Global models agree on a west-northwestward track toward Taiwan but have disparity in the intensification of 93W with ECMWF being the surprise aggressor here and GFS being more laid back. Ensembles however have high member grouping and show 93W getting to that of storm strength by 96 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 23 knots. 

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

>>> According to the JTWC, there’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 97W, which is located approximately 645 NM northwest of Wake Island

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating with surrounding convective swath along the eastern edge to southern edge of the newly centered position of Invest 97W.

Environmental analysis shows that the invest lies in a highly favorable region for development defined by strong poleward and equatorward outflow aloft due upper level support from being on the eastern side of a tropical upper tropospheric trough (tutt), moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, though the shear is mostly on the west side of the circulation associated with strong northerly flow on the west side of the tutt, and warm sea surface temperature values.

Global models agree on the general direction but not intensification of 97W. As is typical, GFS is being more aggressive on development as it develops the invest into a depression within 24 hours, while ECMWF and ensemble members show more of a 72 hour development cycle before reaching warning criteria. based on the very favorable positioning relative to the tutt, the GFS solution cannot be discounted however.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 22 knots. 

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.