Current Snapshot

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no tropical cyclones

Northwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90W…which is located approximately 272 NM south-southeast of Yap.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts persistent flaring convection over the still disorganized low level circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment with diffluent westerly outflow, low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that 90W will continue on a northerly track towards Yap then a northwestward turn towards the Philippines and there it will continue on a slow and steady track with gradual intensification…as it becoming more organized.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98S…which is located approximately 221 NM north of Darwin, Australia.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave pass shows a persistent curved band of convection displaced to the southwest of a partially exposed low level circulation center that has become better organized and remains close to the band of deep convection.

Environmental analysis reveals marginally favorable conditions for intensification due to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by very warm sea surface temperatures and good poleward outflow.

Models are in general agreement that 98S will continue on a southwestward track and intensify outside 96 hours

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.