By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank) is located about 605 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette) is located about 1385 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 06W (Songda) is located about 240 NM southwest of Kusan AB, South Korea
Tropical Cyclone 01S is located about 1244 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 07E (Frank)
FRANK EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON
Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Frank should start weakening on Sunday as it moves over colder water.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).
Tropical Cyclone 08E (Georgette)
GEORGETTE FORECAST TO SLOW TO A CRAWL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
Georgette is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast for Sunday.
The tropical storm is expected to slow down further after that, resulting in a meandering motion through the beginning of next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is anticipated for the next several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather being investigated by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at the time of this writing
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 06W (Songda)
According to the JTWC Warning number 9, sustained winds were 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a compact system that is struggling to consolidate with formative convective banding from the north and south feeding into a partially-exposed low-level circulation
Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with moderate poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate vertical wind shear.
TD 06W will track more northwestward through 12 hours then turn northward, as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge which is expected to erode with the approach of a mid-latitude shortwave trough.
After 24 hours, the cyclone will accelerate north-northeastward on the poleward side of the ridge, making landfall over the west coast of North Korea just after 60 hours.
The marginally favorable conditions will fuel a slight intensification to a peak of 35 knots by 12 hours. Afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will lead to a steady weakening to 25 knots prior to landfall and dissipation by 72 hours as land interaction speeds up the erosion.
Tropical Cyclone 01S
According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds were 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a medium-sized system that has maintained overall structure in the past 12 hours, characterized by flaring central convection and sheared cirrus canopy along the southern peripheries.
Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable with strong poleward outflow and tepid sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high northerly vertical wind shear.
TC 01S is approaching a break in the steering ridge caused by a deep mid-latitude trough transiting from southwest. After 12 hours, as the mid-latitude trough recedes eastward, a secondary ridge will build to the south, assume steering, and drive the system west-northwestward.
TC 01S will maintain its current intensity over the next 12 hours under the marginally favorable environment. Afterward, conditions will degrade steadily with strong dry air entrainment, increasing vertical wind shear and sustained
marginally-favorable sea surface temperatures, leading to dissipation by 48 hours.
>>> An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95W is located approximately 85 NM south of Kadena AB
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict shallow rain bands wrapping into a partially exposed low level circulation.
The environment is relatively favorable for development with moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, high sea surface temperatures and moderate poleward outflow.
Deterministic and ensemble models are in fair agreement the system will track generally northward over the next 48-72 hours, but with no significant consolidation.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.