By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no tropical cyclones
Northwest Pacific Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W, which is located approximately 250 NM east of Puerto Princesa, Philippines.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a broad, disorganized low level circulation center with flaring convection.
Analysis indicates the invest is in a marginally favorable environment for development defined by good poleward outflow aloft with favorable upper-level divergence and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement that 93W will track generally westward across the Sulu Sea over the next 24-48 hours. Although the environment is favorable, the weak low-level structure and interaction with land will likely limit development in the near-term.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.