By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91B, which is located approximately 225 NM west of Port Blair.
Enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave pass depict a partially exposed low-level circulation (llc) with the majority of convection offset to the west of the llc and formative banding wrapping into the east.
Environmental analysis reveals that 91B is currently in a marginally unfavorable environment for intensification as reflected by moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, a wedge of mid-level dry air to the north-northwest of the llcc, and moderate poleward outflow…sea surface temperatures are still very warm.
Deterministic models are in agreement that 91B will continue to steadily consolidate, as it tracks north-northeastward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27 to 32 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.