Invest 99E / Invest 97W
Friday, August 5, 2022

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

>>> Offshore of Southern Mexico:

Invest 99E

Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure area located offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico continues to gradually become better organized.

If current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form on Saturday or Saturday night. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph through early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

>>> Well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands:

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:

An area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin late this weekend.

Environmental conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form when it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific basin during the early to middle part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Central Pacific:

Well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands:

An area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin late this weekend.

Environmental conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form when it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific basin during the early to middle part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W which is located approximately 195 NM northwest of Manila, Philippines

According to the JTWC…animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict flaring convection consolidating into a weakly defined low level circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals the invest is in a marginally favorable environment for development defined by moderate poleward outflow, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. Surface observations from Manila report 10 knot
winds.

Global model guidance is in general agreement that invest 97W will meander westward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.