Tropical Cyclone 09E (Howard) / Invest 97W
Monday, August 8, 2022

Current Snapshot

For all the latest updates visit: DisasterAWARE

By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Howard)…is located 360 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Howard)

HOWARD HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH

Howard is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

>>> Offshore of Southwest Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico in a couple of days.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

>>> Well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Environmental conditions have become less conducive, and additional development is no longer expected as the disturbance moves westward toward the central Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Central Pacific:

Well south-southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:

An area of low pressure could form around midweek within a broad trough several hundred miles south-southeast of the main Hawaiian Islands.

Environmental conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system as it moves quickly westward over the
central Pacific later this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:

There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97W which is located approximately 384 NM south of Hong Kong

According to the JTWC…animated enhanced infrared satellite and microwave imagery depict a broad, disorganized monsoon depression in the South China Sea which is steadily consolidating.

Environmental analysis indicates good outflow in the mid and upper levels, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear in the immediate vicinity, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Overall conditions are ripe for development, yet a region of unfavorable shear (20-30 knots) stretching from Hainan Island to the Luzon Strait, and the slow rate of consolidation are proving to be stiff barriers to more rapid development.

Deterministic and ensemble models agree that the circulation associated with 97W will maintain a broad wind field as it starts its northerly track, merge with the vorticity center currently developing to the northeast and consolidate just enough before landfall to meet the criteria for a tropical depression. Intensity guidance shows steady intensification to a weak to moderate tropical storm strength system prior to landfall.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.