By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no tropical cyclones
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96S…which is located approximately 127 NM east-southeast of Cocos Island, Australia
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a 281710z Himawari-9 IR image depict a partly exposed low level circulation with flaring convection to the east.
Upper level analysis shows that 96S is currently in a marginally favorable environment for development with strong polar outflow, warm sea surface temperatures offset by medium to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear.
Global models are in generally good agreement that 96S will track southwestward, moving into an area of lower vertical wind shear and may continue to develop over the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 27 knots.
The potential for transition into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.