By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
Post-Tropical Cyclone 09E (Howard)…is located 790 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California – Last Advisory
Post-Tropical Cyclone 09E (Howard)
HOWARD NOW POST-TROPICAL
Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west with some decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday, with that motion continuing through late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the
post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate by Friday night or
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
>>> Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
Satellite-derived wind data from earlier this afternoon indicate that a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has an elongated circulation without a well-defined center.
However, the low continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph, well offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Well south of the main Hawaiian Islands:
A surface low located several hundred miles south of the main Hawaiian Islands shows better organization of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Environmental conditions may allow some gradual development of this system as it moves quickly west northwest away from the main Hawaiian Islands through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Northwest and Southwest Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea:
There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90W which is located approximately 381 NM south of Kyoto, Japan
According to the JTWC…animated multi-spectral satellite imagerydepicts a partially-exposed, ragged low-level circulation with deep convection confined to the southwest quadrant. A color composite microwave image reveals shallow banding over the western semicircle wrapping into the broad center with weaker,
Upper-level analysis indicates the system is embedded within a marginal environment with good equatorward outflow, however,convergent flow and moderate northerly vertical wind shear over the northern semicircle is hindering development.
Global models indicate a north-northwestward to northward track over the next 1-2 days with mixed development. ECMWF and NAVGEM suggest some potential for development of a weak tropical depression south of the Kanto Plain with limited 25-35 knot winds over the eastern semicircle while the GFS model shows a weaker system with 20-25 knot winds over the eastern periphery.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.