By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, November 15, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
>>> Southwestern Caribbean Sea…
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward across the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent
>>> Offshore southeast coast of United States…
A non-tropical area of low pressure appears to be forming near southern Florida along a frontal boundary. This system is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend.
Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent