By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, November 17, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Potential Tropical Cyclone 22L…is located about 155 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica
Potential Tropical Cyclone 22L
DISTURBANCE’S CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DECREASING…BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI
According to the NHC advisory number 4…
The system is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but the system’s chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas
of heavy rain, on Jamaica today, southeastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.