By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, October 22, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 17E (Norma)…is located approximately 85 miles south-southwest of Los Mochis, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 18E …is located approximately 530 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 01P (Lola) …is located approximately 380 NM north of Port Vila, Vanuatu
Tropical Cyclone 05A (Tej) …is located approximately 222 NM south of Salalah, Oman
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone Norma…
NORMA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA…ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO MAINLAND MEXICO
According to the NHC advisory number 20
Norma is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast later today and tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico today and move inland within the tropical storm warning area tonight or early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread onshore along portions of the warning area along the west coast of mainland Mexico through tonight.
RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through today and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding along the coast of Baja California Sur should gradually subside today. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 18E…
NEW DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
According to the NHC advisory number 1
The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a slow turn northwestward by Wednesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 01P (Lola)
According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds were 55 knots, with gusts to 70 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) shows a large consolidating system with deep formative bands wrapping in from the north and south into a fairly symmetrical cold dense overcast that is obscuring the low level circulation.
TC Lola will track more southward then southwestward after 24 hours, as the steering ridge builds. After 96 hours, the ridge is weakened by a shortwave trough approaching from the southwest, allowing the system to track more southward as it begins to round the ridge axis.
The favorable environment will fuel a steady intensification to a peak of 100 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, increasing vertical shear will rapidly erode the system down to 35 knots by 120 hours.
Tropical Cyclone 05A (Tej)
According to the JTWC warning number 9…
The system had sustained winds of 100 knots, with gusts to 125 knot
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has lost its pinhole eye, yielding to a dimple feature. The cyclone remains intense with a highly symmetrical central dense overcast; however, a dry slot has cracked open along the southwest flank.
Analysis indicates the environment has become marginally unfavorable with the onset of near-surface cool dry air entrainment along the southwest periphery.
Under the steering ridge to the northeast, TC Tej will continue to track northwestward toward eastern Yemen, making landfall around 30 hours.
The marginally unfavorable environment will gradually weaken the system down to 90 knots prior to landfall.
Afterward, increasing cool northerly dry air entrainment from the Arabian Peninsula in addition to land interaction with the dry Yemeni Desert will rapidly erode the system to dissipation by 72 hours, very likely sooner.
North Indian Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92B…which is located approximately 318 NM southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.
Enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a consolidating, partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc) with deep, flaring convection over the center and formative banding wrapping into the llcc.
Environmental analysis indicates that 92B is in a favorable environment for development with good outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 92B will be quasi-stationary as it continues to develop before starting a northward track at around 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.