By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, October 7, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lidia)…is located about 500 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16E (Lidia)…is located about 280 miles south-southeast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 14W (Koinu)…is located approximately 53 NM south-southeast of Hong Kong
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Bolaven)…is located approximately 549 NM east-southeast of Andersen AFB
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lidia)
LIDIA SLIGHTLY STRONGER…FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE
EARLY NEXT WEEK
According to the NHC Advisory number 20…
Lidia is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico early next week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is expected through early next week, and Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16E
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO…
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
According to the NHC Advisory number 1…
The system is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through late Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is forecast to approach the coast of southern Mexico within the watch area on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression early Sunday, and a tropical storm late Sunday or Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days...high…90 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 14W Koinu
According to the JTWC Warning number 35…
Sustained winds were 85 knots…with gusts to near 105 knots
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the system has become quasi-stationary, and maintained a compact central dense overcast and a sharply-outlined 8 NM pinhole eye.
Typhoon Koinu will slowly drift west-southwestward then southwestward under the steering ridge. The marginally favorable environment will promote a slow weakening to 60 knots by 48 hours.
Afterward, dry air intrusion from mainland China, plus landfall into Hainan, splash back into the Gulf of Tonkin, then final landfall into central Vietnam, will erode the system at a faster rate to 25 knots, possibly dissipated, by 120 hours as it crosses into Cambodia.
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Bolaven)
According to the JTWC Warning number 5…
Sustained winds were 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a disorganized, albeit consolidating system with deep flaring convection obscuring the low level circulation.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low to moderate vertical wind shear, moderate poleward outflow, and very warm along-track sea surface temperatures.
TS 15W will track west-northwestward then northwestward under the steering influence of the ridge to the northeast and will come to within 32 NM of Andersen AFB as it tracks northeast of Guam and Rota just before 72 hours.
Afterward, a mid-latitude trough exiting Japan to the northwest will weaken the ridge and allow the system to track more northward toward Iwo To. The
favorable environment will fuel a steady intensification to 80 knots at 72 hours.
Thereafter, increasing poleward outflow ahead of the mid-latitude trough will promote a rapid intensification, and by 120 hours, reaching 120 knots.