By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, October 8, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lidia)…is located about 455 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16E (Lidia)…is located about 190 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 14W (Koinu)…is located approximately 42 NM south of Hong Kong
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Bolaven)…is located approximately 478 NM east-southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lidia)
LIDIA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH…FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY
According to the NHC Advisory number 22…
Lidia is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northward motion is expected later today, followed by a much faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but some strengthening is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, and Lidia is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16E
DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED BUT NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE…TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
According to the NHC Advisory number 3…
The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and this system is forecast to become a tropical storm by this evening.
Satellite imagery indicate the system is gradually becoming better
organized, and it is forecast to become a tropical depression or storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days...high…90 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 14W Koinu
According to the JTWC Warning number 37…
Sustained winds were 70 knots…with gusts to near 85 knots
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the system has once again become quasi-stationary as it maintained a compact central dense overcast. however, the convective structure continued to weaken as evidenced by the closed eye and warming cloud tops.
Typhoon Koinu will slowly drift southwestward under the steering influence of the ridge to the west.
The marginally unfavorable environment becoming more unfavorable, exacerbated by dry air intrusion from mainland China plus landfall into Hainan around 42 hours, then final landfall into central Vietnam around 72 hours, will erode the system to dissipation by 96 hours after it crosses into Laos. There is a distinct possibility that TY 14W will dissipate much sooner.
Tropical Cyclone 15W (Bolaven)
According to the JTWC Warning number 7…
Sustained winds were 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidating system with deep overshooting and expanding convection in the central dense overcast that is obscuring the low level circulation.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with moderate poleward outflow and very warm along-track sea surface temperatures offset by moderate vertical wind shear.
TS 15W will track northwestward under the steering influence of an extension the ridge to the northeast and will come to within 62 NM of Andersen AFB as it tracks northeast of Guam just before 48 hours. Afterward, the ridge to the north will recede eastward and assume steering and drive the system northward toward Iwo To.
The favorable environment will fuel a steady intensification to 80 knots at 48 hours. Afterward, low vertical wind shear, as the cyclone rounds the ridge axis, and increasing poleward outflow ahead of a mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest, will promote a rapid intensification to a peak of 125 knots by 96 hours.
Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear will begin to erode the system down to 120 knots by 120 hours.