By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, October 11, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Super Typhoon 15W (Bolaven)…is located approximately 211 NM southeast of Iwo To
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> South of Southwestern Mexico…
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles to the south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible while the system moves generally north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Super Typhoon 15W (Bolaven)
According to the JTWC Warning number 23…
Sustained winds were 155 knots…with gusts to near 190 knots
Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows the system has sustained overall convective signature and wrap and a sharply-outlined eye, slightly enlarged at 16nm diameter.
STY Bolaven will continue to accelerate northeastward on the poleward side of the ridge the strong westerlies that has enhanced the poleward outflow will become more intense and rapidly increase the vertical wind shear. Additionally, along-track sea surface temperatures will gradually cool.
This combined effect will result in a rapid weakening and by 72 hours, the cyclone will be reduced to 70 knots, possibly weaker. Concurrently by 48 hours, 15W will begin extra-tropical transition and by 72 hours, will transform into a hurricane-force cold-core low.