By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, October 16, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no active tropical cyclones
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> South of Southwestern Mexico…
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is very likely to form within the next day or so.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and then turn northwestward and northward late in the week offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent
>>> South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico…
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a few days.
Gradual development of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W…which is located approximately 161 NM east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with flaring deep convection in the western periphery and weak formative banding wrapping into the llcc from the north.
Environmental analysis indicates that 99W is in a favorable environment for development with robust poleward outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 99W will track north-northwestward and continue to develop over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.