Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, September 12, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Western east Pacific

Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are showing some signs of organization.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for additional development while the system moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours..high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific…

Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are showing some signs of organization.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

By the weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for additional development while the system moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours..high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W…which is located approximately 577 NM east of Iwo To, Japan

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave pass depicts a partially exposed llcc with the deepest convection displaced to the southeast.

Environmental environmental analysis indicates that 93W is in marginally favorable conditions for development with low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, but is offset by a deep upper-level trough in the area that is suppressing potential development.

Global models have the circulation drifting poleward with little development over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.