Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, September 13, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Western east Pacific

Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific…

Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W…which is located approximately 639 NM east of Iwo To, Japan

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with deep persistent convection across the eastern semicircle…and a highly asymmetric wind field, with a concentrated region of 25-35 knot winds beneath the largest area of convection to the east and 15-20 knot winds wrapping across the northern semicircle.

Environmental analysis indicates that 93W is a borderline tropical-subtropical, or hybrid type system, with characteristics of both a subtropical low and a tropical cyclone. The environment is marginally favorable, with positive aspects including low to moderate (15-20 knots) of southerly wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, and strong upper-level poleward outflow into the base of a jet streak developing to the north. However, these positive parameters are offset by the presence of very dry air across the western portion of the circulation, and the presence of a low centered just northwest of the llcc, which is bringing with a cold temperature anomaly aloft and subsident motion, inhibiting organization and suppressing intensification.

Global models have the circulation moving quickly poleward, rapidly becoming more subtropical, with little in the way of intensification expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.