Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, September 14, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Western east Pacific

Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific…

Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W…which is located approximately 620 NM east-southeast of Misawa, Japan

The system is currently classified as a subtropical depression, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad partially exposed low level circulation (llc) with multiple vortices and flaring convection along the northern and eastern portions with comma cloud type shape. A low just southwest of the llc continues to bring down dry air over and within the system thus continuing to keep it tame for the moment.

Environmental analysis shows a neutral environment that will not hinder nor boost 93W. This is backed by warm sea surface temperatures, neutral (20 knot) vertical wind shear, and lack luster upper level outflow.

Global models agree on 93W moving quickly poleward and becoming more in  phase with the long wave pattern with no intensification expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.