By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, September 23, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 14E…is located about 990 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 14E
According to the NHC advisory number 2…
DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY
The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight intensification is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast become a tropical storm by Sunday.
Central North Pacific:
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 450 NM south of Hong Kong
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a broad and disorganized region of convection with no definitive low level circulation center (llcc) observed along a low-level convergent boundary.
Environmental analysis indicates that 91W is in a favorable environment for development with good equatorward outflow aloft, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global numerical deterministic and ensemble models are in high agreement that 91W will track westward and slowly develop over the next 48 to 96 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.