By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, September 27, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no Tropical Cyclones
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> Southwestern East Pacific…
A tropical wave continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some development of this system remains possible over the next day or two while it moves generally westward at about 15 mph. By late Friday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development before the system moves into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W…which is located approximately 220 NM west-northwest of Anderson AFB, Guam
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a broad, partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with disorganized flaring convection. Formative banding is observed west of the circulation center where the bulk of convection is occurring.
Environmental analysis indicates that 93W is in a marginally favorable environment for development with weak outflow aloft offset by low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global numerical models agree that 93W will track westward and continue to develop over the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.