By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, September 28, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no Tropical Cyclones
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> South of Southwestern Mexico…
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of southwestern Mexico early next week.
Slow development of the system will be possible while it moves generally northwestward during the middle to late portions of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W…which is located approximately 848 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a broad, partially exposed low level circulation center with disorganized flaring convection. Formative banding is observed west of the circulation center where the bulk of convection is occurring.
Environmental analysis indicates that 93W is in a marginally favorable environment for development with weak outflow aloft offset by low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global numerical models agree that 93W will track westward and continue to develop over the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.