Invest 95E / Invest 98W
Thursday, July 20, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, July 20, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Southwest of the southern Baja California Peninsula…

Invest 95E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization since earlier today.

Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for further development of this system during the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

By Saturday, further development is not expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters stronger upper-level winds.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent


Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones


Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W…which is located approximately 585 NM east of Legazpi, Philippines

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts flaring convection offset to the eastern semicircle partially obscuring a broad elongated low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions characterized by moderate equatorward outflow and weak poleward outflow being enhanced by a developing outflow channel into a strong tutt-cell to the northeast. Vertical wind shear remains low (10-15 knots) and sea surface temperatures are warm.

Global models are in agreement that 98W will continue to gradually consolidate and develop as it tracks generally northwestward over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.