Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, July 26, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Typhoon 05W (Doksuri)…is located approximately 282 NM south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Offshore of Southern Mexico…

An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern Mexico over the weekend to early next week.

Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Typhoon 05W (Doksuri)

According to the JTWC Warning number 23…

Sustained winds were 75 knots…with gusts to near 90 knots

Upper-level conditions have degraded with convergent flow over the northwestern periphery and weakening poleward outflow. However, equatorward flow has remained robust. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery reveals a ragged 8 NM eye. A color composite microwave image depicts a weak, eroding microwave eye feature with spiral banding primarily over the eastern and southern semi-circles.

The JTWC track forecast has remained highly consistent with the previous JTWC forecast tracks and continues to indicate a steady north-northwestward track past southern Taiwan into southeast China with landfall at 36 hours. Due to the extensive gale force winds associated with the system, surface winds are expected to increase to 35 plus knots through the Taiwan Strait as TY 05W approaches Taiwan.

As TY 05W tracks away from northern Luzon, there is a short period of overall favorable conditions including high ocean heat content values, which will likely aid in a brief re-intensification period through 12 hours before the system interacts with Taiwan.

After landfall near 36 hours, TY Doksuri will maintain a poleward track along the western periphery of the north-south oriented ridge deep into China, with dissipation expected by 72 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 190 NM northeast of Yap.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts broad turning and a weak low-level circulation (llc) with building convection and formative banding wrapping into the llc along the southern periphery. In addition, the formative banding is further apparent in another image, but is displaced relatively far outward of the center.

Invest 91W remains in a marginal environment for development due to northerly outflow from TY 05W, while having improved slightly over the past six hours, is still applying some pressure on the system, placing under low to moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures remain warm, and upper-level equatorward outflow is improving.

Global models are in strong agreement that Invest 91W will steadily consolidate as it tracks north-northwest over the next 6-24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 21 to 26 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.