Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, July 29, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Khanun)…is located approximately 592 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Offshore of Southern Mexico…

Invest 96E

A tropical wave located south of the coast of Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central Pacific Ocean:

There are no tropical cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Khanun)

According to the JTWC Warning number 11…

Sustained winds were 55 knots…with gusts to near 70 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a broad and consolidating low-level circulation (llc) with multiple mesovortices rotating cyclonically about a centroid. Satellite imagery also shows improved deep convective banding wrapping into the eastern semicircle of a partially-exposed llc.

Tropical storm 05W will track north-northwest through 24 hours along the southwest boundary of a strong high pressure system centered near 34N 143E.

Northerly flow causing shear in the northwest quadrant will continue to subside while the mid- to upper-levels will gradually moisten, allowing TS 05W to slowly intensify through 24 hours.

The system is anticipated to turn more northwest-west-northwest, due to the strong influence of a steering ridge to the north from 24 through 72 hours.

The transition to a more favorable environment could potentially allow a period of rapid intensification to occur. A peak of approximately 95 knots is anticipated to occur near 72 hours. The system is expected to make landfall around 96 hours and dissipate overland after 120 hours.