Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, August 8, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Dora)…is located about 700 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Khanun)…is located approximately 104 NM south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Lan)…is located approximately 308 NM east of Iwo To, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Central East Pacific…

A tropical wave is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form in the next few days while the system moves generally westward near 15 mph across the central portion of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Central Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Dora)

DORA MAINTAINS CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH PASSING FAR SOUTH OF
KAUAI

According to the NHC advisory number 35…

Dora is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slow down and turn toward the west-northwest over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast over the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Khanun)

According to the JTWC Warning number 53…

Sustained winds were 55 knots…with gusts to near 70 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts deep convective banding wrapping into a broad exposed center. Visible imagery and a microwave pass show multiple concentric bands around the low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment with strong equatorward outflow, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures offset by dry air entrainment.

TS 06W (Khanun) continues to track around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge (str) positioned to the east and northeast, and will continue to accelerate northwestward as the str takes over as the primary steering mechanism, through the remainder of the forecast.

By 24 hours, 06W will pass to the west of Kyushu before making landfall to the west of Busan by 36 hours. After which the system will rapidly move northward into northeastern China by 96 hours.

In terms of intensity, the system will move over warm sea surface temperatures, at the same time, outflow will steadily improve, with increased poleward outflow, which will enable increased convection. These combined factors should allow the system to intensify to a peak of 60 knots by 24 hours.

After 36 hours, 06W will succumb to the affects of land interaction with the Korean Peninsula and will decrease in intensity to 30 knots by 72 hours. By
 96 hours, 06W is expected to move over land in southern China where dissipation will occur.

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Lan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 6…

Sustained winds were 55 knots…with gusts to near 70 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery continues to depict a consolidating system with improved convective banding over the northern and eastern semicircles obscuring low level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental conditions remain favorable for intensification due to warm sea surface temperatures, low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, and good equatorward outflow.

TS 07W is forecast to track west-northwestward along the southern and southwestern peripheries of the ridge through 36 hours. After 36 hours, 07W will slow slightly and turn northwestward as a mid-latitude trough to the north will weaken the ridge. By 48 hours, the ridge is expected to position to a north-south orientation supporting a more north-northwestward track. After 72 hours, TS 07W is expected to accelerate northwestward toward Honshu through the end of the forecast.

TS 07W will intensify over the next 12 hours as it consolidates under generally favorable conditions. By 24 hours, the forecast calls for a steeper rate of intensification and the possibility of rapid intensification as poleward outflow improves. After which a peak intensity of 85 knots is expected to occur near 72 hours.