Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 10, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Dora)…is located about 1235 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Lan)…is located approximately 565 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Central East Pacific…

A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph across the central portion of the basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Western East Pacific…

Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Off the coast of southern Mexico…

An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America in a few days.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Central Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 05E (Dora)

DORA MAINTAINING INTENSITY AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST

According to the NHC advisory number 43…

Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h).

This motion is expected to continue for the next day, followed by a slowing of the forward motion during the following two days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND SURF:

Swells generated by Dora will produce large and life-threatening surf on Johnston Island.

>>> Approximately 2200 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii…

A tropical wave located about 2000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far western portion of the basin, and into the Central Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Lan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 14…

Sustained winds were 115 knots…with gusts to near 140 knots

Satellite imagery depicts a compact yet intense typhoon strength circulation with a large (33 NM) eye. Over the past several hours, the once cloudy eye is now mostly clear, resulting in warming eye temperatures. A color composite microwave image reveals a robust eye wall has formed with numerous feeder bands of convection in all quadrants around it. A scatterometery pass indicates a tight and mostly symmetric wind field, slightly favoring the northeastern quadrant.

TY 07W (Lan) is forecast to continue tracking north-northwestward under the steering influence of the ridge to the east. Over the next 36 hours, fueled by low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and vigorous outflow aloft, 07W is forecast to reach a peak intensity near 95 knots.

As the ridge to the east reorients and shifts, track speeds will increase as the system passes 30N. By 72 hours, substantial dry air and subsidence aloft will conspire to gradually weaken the system as it steadies up on a collision course with mainland Japan.

Based on the otherwise favorable conditions of the sea surface temperatures and shear values, 07W is forecast to make landfall as a typhoon, proceeding inland and impacting the island of Honshu and Yokosuka areas.