Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, August 16, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Fernanda)…is located about 1335 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Hilary)…is located about 390 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Greg)…is located about 535 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Lan)…is located approximately 211 NM west-northwest of Misawa, Japan – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Fernanda)

FERNANDA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON

According to the NHC advisory number 18…

Fernanda is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fernanda is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or Thursday and dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Hilary)

HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW…INTERESTS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM

According to the NHC advisory number 3…

Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn northwestward on Friday, and north-northwestward on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24-36 hours, and Hilary is forecast to become a major hurricane by the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

>>> South of Central America and Southern Mexico…

An area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Greg)

TROPICAL STORM GREG CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH

According to the CPHC advisory number 13…

Greg is moving toward the west near 13 mph. This motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the west-southwest is forecast on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours, followed by steady weakening. Greg is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Lan) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 38…

Sustained winds were 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with minimal flaring convection being rapidly evacuated poleward. A microwave image reveals a broad and deformed fully exposed llcc with minimal convective cover.

TS 07W is forecast to maintain its gradual poleward curve toward the Sea of Okhotsk throughout the forecast period. Over the next 12 hours, strong poleward outflow aloft will largely negate steadily mounting vertical wind shear, resulting in a very slow decline of intensity during that time.

Shortly after 12 hours, vertical wind shear together with cool dry air entraining the system will begin to drive intensity values down. At the same time, the system will being to interact with a weak baroclinic zone as it proceeds poleward of the 44th parallel, this will initiate extra-tropical transition (ett).

As the system continues to weaken and integrate into the mid-latitude trough, it will continue through ett until entering the Sea of Okhotsk where it will complete ett near 36 hours.