By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, August 22, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 08W…is located approximately 423 NM east-northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> South of Southern Mexico…
An area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America or southern Mexico during the next few days.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while it moves slowly to the northwest or
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 08W
According to the JTWC Warning number 1…
Sustained winds were 25 knots…with gusts to near 35 knots
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91W…which is located approximately 442 NM south of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depict a slightly elongated circulation with persistent flaring convection over the suspected low level circulation center.
Analysis reveals that invest 91W is in a marginally favorable environment for development defined by lackluster poleward outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in general agreement that invest 91w will continue on a northward track over the next 48 hours while struggling to become a meaningful system.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.