Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, August 28, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Irwin)…is located about 1045 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Damrey)…is located approximately 204 NM east of Misawa, Japan – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 09W (Saola)…is located approximately 280 NM north-northeast of Manila, Philippines

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Haikui)…is located approximately 391 NM south-southwest of Iwo To

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Irwin)

IRWIN EXPECTED TO FINALLY TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT

According to the NHC advisory number 9…

Irwin is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight. Irwin is then expected to continue heading generally westward for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Only small changes in intensity are expected for the next day or so. Slow weakening is likely after that and Irwin could become post-tropical by mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

Central North Pacific…

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Irwin, centered around 1000 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and 1900 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

Irwin is forecast to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility as a post-tropical remnant low on Friday.

>>> Approximately 800 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii...

An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some slow development of this system as it continues westward around 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Damrey) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 22…

Sustained winds were 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has accelerated northeastward on the poleward side of the steering subtropical ridge with the convection sheared and partly exposing the low level circulation.

Analysis indicates TS 08W has entered the baroclinic zone and undergoing extra-tropical transitioning and will become a gale-force cold core low with an expanding wind field by 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 09W (Saola)

According to the JTWC Warning number 22…

Sustained winds were 100 knots…with gusts to near 125 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a medium-sized symmetrical system that has recently lost its 14 NM diameter eye as the central convective tops and the eyewall have warmed.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with very warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, strong poleward outflow aloft, offset by low to moderate vertical wind shear.

TY Saola will track more northwestward toward the Luzon Strait under the ridge (str), then west-northwestward toward Hong Kong after 48 hours as the str builds.

The favorable environment will fuel slight intensification to a peak of 105 knots at 24 hours. Afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and land interaction will gradually weaken the system down to 30 knots by 120 hours, as it makes landfall just east of Hong Kong.

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Haikui)

According to the JTWC Warning number 3…

Sustained winds were 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidating system with its main convection displaced westward and mostly exposing the low level circulation.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, low vertical wind shear, and strong poleward outflow.

TS Haikui will track generally west-northwestward under the steering influence of the str to the northeast. The favorable environment will fuel a gradual intensification, reaching 75 knots by 120 hours as the system passes just southwest of Okinawa.