Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, July 12, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Calvin)…is located about 745 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Calvin)

CALVIN STRENGTHENING…FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT

Calvin is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Calvin is forecast to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

Central Pacific Ocean:

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Calvin, centered around 2850 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Calvin is expected to move
into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility Sunday night.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Western Pacific…

Invest 95W is located approximately 298 NM east of the Philippines

This system is classified as a 600 NM diameter monsoon depression type system with a very broad, weak core of 5-10 knot winds, a small patch of 20 knot winds displaced 110-130 NM to the north-northeast, and predominantly 15 knot winds surrounding the weak core.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts extensive low-level flow wrapping around the broad low level circulation center (llcc) with disorganized, flaring convection over the llcc. A microwave image indicates fragmented, weak convective banding over the southern and northern peripheries with intense convective bursts near the llcc.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with strong diffluent easterly outflow and enhanced poleward outflow offset by moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are favorable in the area.

Global models show a slow poleward track toward Luzon and the Luzon Strait over the next 48 to 72 hours, with gradual deepening and development of a 25-30 knot monsoon depression.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.