By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, July 13, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 03E (Calvin)…is located about 960 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Tropical Cyclone 03E (Calvin)
CALVIN QUICKLY STRENGTHENS
According to the NHC advisory number 10
Calvin is moving toward the west near 15 mph (20 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend, as Calvin begins to move over cooler water.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).
>>> South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the central potion of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent
Central Pacific Ocean:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Calvin, located around 2,300 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Calvin is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility by Sunday night, then approach the Hawaiian Islands as a weakening Tropical Storm from Monday through Wednesday.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Invest 95W is located approximately 130 NM north of Manila, Philippines
The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, greater than 600 NM diameter, with extensive gale-force winds over the eastern periphery and a weak core of light winds.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts extensive low-level flow wrapping around a broad low level circulation center (llcc) exceeding 400 NM in diameter with disorganized, building convection over the llcc. A microwave image indicate a broad, building, wrapping convective band to the east of the llcc.
Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with strong diffluent radial outflow on the southeast periphery. There is low (5-15 knot) vertical wind shear through the environment and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 9W will track northwestward and steadily intensify over the next 12 to 24 hours. Now that the monsoon circulation is centered over the mountainous region of Luzon, two distinct low pressure regions are evident. One to the east and the other to the west of Luzon. Models all indicate the circulation that deepens to the west of Luzon, in the South China Sea will emerge the dominant circulation and eventually become a tropical cyclone that continues to deepen as it tracks northwestward.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.