By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, June 29, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 01E (Adrian)…is located about 440 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Beatriz)…is located about 100 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone Adrian
ADRIAN STRENGTHS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
According to the NHC advisory number 10…
Adrian is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is expected tonight or early Friday. Weakening is forecast to begin later on Friday and continue through the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Adrian are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Beatriz)
BEATRIZ EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY SOON…WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
According to the NHC advisory number 5…
Beatriz is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight, with a decrease in forward speed occurring over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move very near or along the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beatriz is likely to become a hurricane by late Friday. Beatriz is forecast to be a hurricane while it moves near portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area Friday and Friday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area through early Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Through Sunday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from Guerrero west-northwest to Nayarit. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Beatriz are forecast to build and spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Central Pacific Ocean:
There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
There are no tropical cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)