By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, October 1, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)…is located about 230 miles east-southeast of Barbuda
Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rina)…is located about 725 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)
TRACK OF PHILIPPE SHIFTING WESTWARD SO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
According to the NHC advisory number 33…
Philippe is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin today and continue into tonight. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km), primarily east of the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:
Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches
This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rina)
RINA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT
According to the NHC advisory number 13…
Rina is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected tonight and Monday.
Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or so. Rina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight and dissipate by late Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the southeast of the center.